Factors influencing the gold price
This ancient Egyptian golden bowl was buried in the tomb of a pharaoh and today sits in the British Museum. Gold items were often buried with pharaohs to use in the after-life, because gold is free from corrosion or decay.
This ancient Egyptian golden bowl was buried in the tomb of a pharaoh and today sits in the British Museum. Gold items were often buried with pharaohs to use in the after-life, because gold is free from corrosion or decay.
Today, like all investments and commodities, the price of gold is ultimately driven by supply and demand, including hoarding and dis-hoarding. Unlike most other commodities, the hoarding and dis-hoarding plays a much bigger role in affecting the price, since almost all the gold ever mined still exists and is potentially able to come on to the market at the right price. Given the huge quantity of above ground hoarded gold, compared to the annual production, the price of gold is mainly affected by changes in sentiment, rather than changes in annual production or gold jewelry demand.
Central banks and the International Monetary Fund play an important role in the gold price. At the end of 2004 central banks and official organisations held 19 percent of all above ground gold as official gold reserves [6]. The Washington Agreement on Gold (WAG) which dates from September 1999, limits gold sales by its members (Europe, United States, Japan, Australia, Bank for International Settlements and the International Monetary Fund) to less than 400 tonnes a year [7]. European central banks, such as the Bank of England and Swiss National Bank, have been key sellers of gold over this period [8].
In November 2005, Russia, Argentina and South Africa expressed interest in increasing their gold holdings [9]. Other than Russia, these are not viewed as significant central banks, but any move by Japan, China or South Korea to do the same would be seen as significant. Currently the United States Federal Reserve has 16% of its assets in gold Federal Reserve gold holdings, whereas China holds approximately 1% in gold.
Although central banks do not generally announce gold purchases in advance, some such as Russia have expressed interest in growing their gold reserves again as of late 2005 [10]. In early 2006, China, who only holds 1.3% of its reserves in gold [11], announced that it was looking for ways to improve the returns on its official reserves. Many bulls took this as a thinly veiled signal that gold would play a larger role in China's reserves, which they hope will push up the price of gold.
Inflation fears have also been influential in the past. The October 2005 consumer price index level of 199.2 (1982-84=100) was 4.3 percent higher than in October 2004. During the first ten months of 2005, the CPI-U rose at a 4.9 percent seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR). This compares with an increase of 3.3 percent for all of 2004.(wiki)
This ancient Egyptian golden bowl was buried in the tomb of a pharaoh and today sits in the British Museum. Gold items were often buried with pharaohs to use in the after-life, because gold is free from corrosion or decay.
This ancient Egyptian golden bowl was buried in the tomb of a pharaoh and today sits in the British Museum. Gold items were often buried with pharaohs to use in the after-life, because gold is free from corrosion or decay.
Today, like all investments and commodities, the price of gold is ultimately driven by supply and demand, including hoarding and dis-hoarding. Unlike most other commodities, the hoarding and dis-hoarding plays a much bigger role in affecting the price, since almost all the gold ever mined still exists and is potentially able to come on to the market at the right price. Given the huge quantity of above ground hoarded gold, compared to the annual production, the price of gold is mainly affected by changes in sentiment, rather than changes in annual production or gold jewelry demand.
Central banks and the International Monetary Fund play an important role in the gold price. At the end of 2004 central banks and official organisations held 19 percent of all above ground gold as official gold reserves [6]. The Washington Agreement on Gold (WAG) which dates from September 1999, limits gold sales by its members (Europe, United States, Japan, Australia, Bank for International Settlements and the International Monetary Fund) to less than 400 tonnes a year [7]. European central banks, such as the Bank of England and Swiss National Bank, have been key sellers of gold over this period [8].
In November 2005, Russia, Argentina and South Africa expressed interest in increasing their gold holdings [9]. Other than Russia, these are not viewed as significant central banks, but any move by Japan, China or South Korea to do the same would be seen as significant. Currently the United States Federal Reserve has 16% of its assets in gold Federal Reserve gold holdings, whereas China holds approximately 1% in gold.
Although central banks do not generally announce gold purchases in advance, some such as Russia have expressed interest in growing their gold reserves again as of late 2005 [10]. In early 2006, China, who only holds 1.3% of its reserves in gold [11], announced that it was looking for ways to improve the returns on its official reserves. Many bulls took this as a thinly veiled signal that gold would play a larger role in China's reserves, which they hope will push up the price of gold.
Inflation fears have also been influential in the past. The October 2005 consumer price index level of 199.2 (1982-84=100) was 4.3 percent higher than in October 2004. During the first ten months of 2005, the CPI-U rose at a 4.9 percent seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR). This compares with an increase of 3.3 percent for all of 2004.(wiki)
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