While the government of Mexico claims it has over 100 gigabarrels of oil, as of January, 2006, the prestigious Oil and Gas Journal estimated its proven reserves at only 12.9 gigabarrels. The reason for the discrepancy is that, while the oil may exist in theory, in practice, politics prevents it from being developed. The constitution of Mexico gives the state oil company, PEMEX, a monopoly over oil production, and the Mexican government treats Pemex as a major source of revenue, taking 60% of its revenues in taxes, according to Business Week on 13 December 2004. As a result, Pemex has insufficient capital to develop the resources on its own, and cannot take on foreign partners to supply money and technology it lacks.
Since 1979, Mexico has produced most of its oil from the supergiant Cantarell Field, which is the second-biggest field in the world by production. In 1997, PEMEX started a massive nitrogen injection project to maintain oil flow, which now consumes half the nitrogen produced in the world. Unfortunately, non-miscible injection schemes such as nitrogen injection simply increase production rates rather than increasing the amount of oil that can be recovered, and result in the same amount of oil being produced over a shorter period of time. As a result of nitrogen injection, production at Cantarell rose from 1.1 million barrels/day in 1996 to a peak of 2.1 million barrels per day in 2004. However, during 2006 Cantarell's output fell 25% from 2.0 million barrels/day in January to 1.5 million barrels/day in December, and the decline continued at a higher than expected rate in 2007.
As for its other fields, 40% of Mexico's remaining reserves are in the Chicontepec Field, which was found in 1926, but which has remained undeveloped because the oil is trapped in impermeable rock. The remainder of Mexico's fields are much smaller, much more expensive to develop, and contain heavy oil that trade at a significant discount to light-oil which is cheaper to refine. As a result of concentrating on its one good oil field and ignoring everything else, Mexico's proven reserves have fallen every year for more than a decade, and it has less than 10 years worth of oil reserves at current production levels. As a result of the decline in the Cantarell field, during 2006 Mexico's total petroleum production dropped 12% from 3.4 million barrels/day in January to 3.0 million barrels/day in December.
In 2002 PEMEX began developing an oil field called "Proyecto Ku-Maloob-Zaap", located 105 kilometers from Ciudad del Carmen. It is estimated that by 2011 the field will produce nearly 800,000 barrels/day [9]. However, this level of production will be achieved by using a nitrogen injection scheme similar to that of Cantarell, and production at Ku-Maloob-Zaap is expected to decline after 2011.
In June, 2007 former U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan warned that declining oil production in Mexico could cause a major fiscal crisis there, and that Mexico needed to increase investment in its energy sector to prevent it. [10](wikipedi)
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